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Prediction for CME (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-10T15:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47501/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, GOES CCOR-1, and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after a downlink gap backfilled in. The source is AR 14485 and a C6.0 flare (S16W47) peaking at 2026-07-10T14:59Z. Also observed well in SDO AIA 171/193 as field line movement, pockets of dimming in the vicinity (not a central area), and a minor EUV wave. Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from 4nT to 5nT, reaching periods of 9nT at 2026-07-13T15:51Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 412 km/s to 430 km/s, an increase in density, and a small increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T14:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-14T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60711
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jul 2026, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 031

Coronal mass ejections: ...Another CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 15:36 on
Jul 10. It was associated to a C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8182, S15 W46)
peaking on Jul 10 at 14:59 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group
909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). This CME has a projected width of about 80
deg and projected speed of about 650 km/s. A glancing blow associated to
this CME may be possible at Earth on Jul 13. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24
hour.

Lead Time: 25.23 hour(s)
Difference: -13.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-12T13:25Z

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